class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide .title[ # Oregon Population Forecast Program ] .subtitle[ ## Proposal Forecasts for Counties & UGBs ] .author[ ### Curry County ] .institute[ ### Portland State University Population Research Center ] .date[ ### March 2026 ] --- class: center # Comments or Questions? ## Contact PSUPRC Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu) Telephone: 503-725-3922 ## Proposal Population Projections https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts --- class: center # PSUPRC Project Team .pull-left[ **Huda Alkitkat, PhD.** *Population Estimates Manager* **Seth Dowden** *Research Assistant* **Neal Marquez, PhD.** *Population Forecast Manager* **Gilbert Montcho, PhD.** *Demographic & Labor Econ Analyst* **Scott Nordstrom, PhD.** *Post-Doctoral Researcher* ] .pull-right[ **Ethan Sharygin, PhD.** *Director* **Aja Sutton, PhD.** *Post-Doctoral Researcher* **David Swanson, PhD.** *Research Associate* **Suniva Thangaraj** *Program Manager* **Joshua Wilde, PhD.** *Research Scientist* ] --- # Curry County Outline - Introduction - Updates - County Overview - UGB Forecasts <style type="text/css"> .pulll-left { float: left; width: 20%; } .pulll-right { float: right; width: 68%; } </style> <style type="text/css"> .pux-left { float: left; width: 38%; } .pux-right { float: right; width: 58%; } </style> <style type="text/css"> .puz-left { float: left; width: 58%; } .puz-right { float: right; width: 38%; } </style> <style type="text/css"> .city table { font-size: 14px; } </style> --- # PSUPRC OPFP Population Forecasts .puz-left[ - For the purposes of land use planning PSUPRC generates population forecasts - For counties, urban growth boundaries (UGBs), and areas outside UGBs - These forecasts must - Be updated at least every four years - Cover a 50 year forecast horizon - Include most up to date data - Allow for public input/objections - Methods & results publicly available ] .puz-right[  ] --- # Oregon Population Forecast Program Cycle  --- # Methods Review: Cohort Component Method .pux-left[ - For Counties - Births = Females 15-50 * Birth Rate - Both number of and rate of births in OR decreasing - Deaths = All Population * Death Rate - While number of deaths are increasing rate of deaths decreasing - Migration = Past migration events - Average of past migration is most likely scenario moving forward ] .pux-right[  ] --- # Methods Review: Housing Unit Method .pull-left[ - For UGBs - `\(P_t = P_{t-1} + \Delta HU*PPH*OCC\)` - `\(PPH\)`: Persons per household - Estimated from most recent census data - `\(OCC\)`: Occupancy Rate - Estimated from most recent census data - `\(\Delta HU\)`: annual change in housing units - Modeled based on past housing unit growth trends ] .pull-right[  ] --- # After this meeting - Email for further follow up - March 30, 2026 forecast discussion period ends - Chance to formally appeal until May 15, 2026 - Will review appeals in the following week - No further changes will be made after May 22, 2026 - Reports and data tables will be available June 15, 2026 --- class: center, middle, inverse # Updates --- # Survey and Preliminary Meeting Feedback - Received housing and general survey responses from over 20 organizations - Updated GIS UGB boundary lines - Account for large public works alter housing development trajectories - Incorporate group quarter expansions - Adjusted housing unit productions - Housing build moratoriums - General concerns - Restrictions on development - Access to others responses --- # Incoporation of 2025 Certified Estimates  --- # Slowing Growth Across the State  --- # Changes in Vital Trends  --- # International Migration  --- # Domestic Mobility  --- class: center, middle, inverse # Curry County --- # Summary of Considerations - Curry County's population growth has been consistent but slow - Further deceleration is expected in the coming years - Negative natural change large driver of deceleration - For growth to occur net migration will need to continue to be strong - No changes made --- # Curry at a Glance <table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> Statistic </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Curry </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Oregon </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Total Population </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 23,446 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 4,237,256 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 0-17 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 14.14% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.20% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 65+ </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 34.37% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 18.25% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Population non-White </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 11.53% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 23.41% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons per Household </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.12 (13,018 units) </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.48 (1,813,747 units) </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> --- # Curry Employment Changes
--- # Curry Migration Flows
--- # Curry Population .pulll-left[ Curry county is expected to grow albeit at a slower pace than previously observed. ] .pulll-right[
] --- # Curry Compositional Changes .pulll-left[ General upward trend of migration, this needs to be sustained in order to maintain growth amid stronger natural decline. ] .pulll-right[
] --- # Curry Births .pulll-left[ Births have been on the decline in the county, a trend that is expected to continue in the coming years. ] .pulll-right[
] --- # Curry Deaths .pulll-left[ Deaths are expected to continue to increase as the population ages, a trend observed across the whole of Oregon. ] .pulll-right[
] --- # Curry Life Expectancy & TFR <img src="Curry_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-12-1.png" width="750px" height="500px" /> --- # Population Pyramids .pulll-left[ The population 65 and over is expected to continue to make up a large portion of the county, sustained by retirement migration. ] .pulll-right[
] --- # Curry Race and Ethnicity .pulll-left[ The population is expected to continue to diversify, continuing a trend observed in the past 35 years. ] .pulll-right[
] --- # Curry UGB Population Changes <img src="Curry_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-15-1.png" width="850px" height="500px" /> --- class: city # Curry UGBs: Brookings in Context .pux-right[ <img src="Curry_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-16-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" /> ] .pux-left[ <table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 15.72% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 23.90% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 26.41% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,412 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2,614 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 3,340 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.51% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 88.33% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 88.86% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.59 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.30 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.23 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> $16,789 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> $31,656 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> $79,109 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 91.43% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.22% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 91.83% </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> ] --- # Curry County: Brookings UGB Boundaries
--- # Brookings UGB Pop Forecast <img src="Curry_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-19-1.png" width="750px" height="500px" /> --- # Brookings UGB Pop Forecast <img src="Curry_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-20-1.png" width="750px" height="500px" /> --- class: city # Curry UGBs: Gold Beach in Context .pux-right[ <img src="Curry_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-21-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" /> ] .pux-left[ <table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 16.04% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 18.98% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 29.56% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 682 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 987 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,304 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.43% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 83.99% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 83.44% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.35 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.19 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.13 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> $15,686 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> $30,243 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> $49,018 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.39% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 96.37% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.35% </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> ] --- # Curry County: Gold Beach UGB Boundaries
--- # Gold Beach UGB Pop Forecast <img src="Curry_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-24-1.png" width="750px" height="500px" /> --- # Gold Beach UGB Pop Forecast <img src="Curry_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-25-1.png" width="750px" height="500px" /> --- class: city # Curry UGBs: Port Orford in Context .pux-right[ <img src="Curry_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-26-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" /> ] .pux-left[ <table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 19.70% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 27.32% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 32.55% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 518 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 662 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 737 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 89.00% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 86.25% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 82.09% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.30 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.02 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 1.87 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> $9,750 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> $23,289 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> $32,390 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 85.32% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.13% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 86.75% </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> ] --- # Curry County: Port Orford UGB Boundaries
--- # Port Orford UGB Pop Forecast <img src="Curry_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-29-1.png" width="750px" height="500px" /> --- # Port Orford UGB Pop Forecast <img src="Curry_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-30-1.png" width="750px" height="500px" /> --- class: center # Comments or Questions? ## Contact PSUPRC Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu) Telephone: 503-725-3922 ## Proposal Population Projections https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts